Care Design 2016

One of my favourites

Hannah Wall
Hannah Wall | Oct 7, 2015 | in #4 Focus on flow

I really like this design principle because its entirely logical and begs the thought 'why wouldn't you do this'?

It's grounded in evidence and draws on the experience of successful sustainable improvements undertaken and does make a big visible impact if successfully implemented.

My only query would be:

1. About matching demand to supply on an ongoing basis. This suggests quite a 'current state' approach whereas I think it's also about looking to future demand. Whilst we can never predict 100% how this will fluctuate we can build in what we know when forecasting future demand and this links back to some of the other principles such as #1.

2. Making sure people understand you should never be running at 100% capacity

I would wholeheartedly support the access to senior decision makers as early as possible.

I think the seven day/ extended working should be context and demand led.

Care Design 2016 Oct 8, 2015

Thanks for your comments Hannah.

What do other people good are we at predicting future demand? Are there others we can learn from to help us build our capability in this area?

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David Parker Oct 9, 2015

For me there are needs to improve long and short term demand predicting. You can't solve a problem you don't see coming.

There are certain seasonal events (long term predicting) which we all know about and can see coming. But our long term modelling doesn't seem to be sophisticated enough to take all the variables into account.

Short term, could we learn from air traffic control, the power grid or traffic flow management to better manage and co-ordinate how we react to short notice demand through a system?

Prediction is also an important part of estimating the potential benefits and risks of change. Flows through healthcare are complex and there are so many interventions along the way. How certain are we that the changes we are making are having the impact we are measuring?

I believe there is some work commissioned by PHE which produced a sophisticated mathematical model looking at system wide impacts on change. These kinds of tools could help us focus resources on areas of highest impact and better align the system.